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But that natural disadvantage is exacerbated by the roster of seats that Democrats are trying to hold on this year’s Senate map.

If these states were House seats — two of them, Montana and North Dakota, actually are because both states only have single, statewide at-large seats — all would rank among the top third of Trump’s districts nationally.

Democrats currently hold only a single House seat among the third of districts that voted most heavily for Trump, moderate Rep. So the danger for Democrats is that all five of these incumbents are living on borrowed time and several of them may be doomed no matter what the national environment is.

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— Because the map is so good for Republicans, it is possible they will add to their majority even if the electoral environment otherwise breaks against them in other elections, such as those for the U. — Our current outlook is for a continuing Republican majority but little net change in what is already a closely divided Senate. Doug Jones (D-AL) in a special election in December did provide Democrats a potential path to a Senate majority, albeit a narrow one.

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Hillary Clinton won the national popular vote by 2.1 points, so the median House seat is about 5.5 points right of the nation. The median Senate seat based on 2016 is an average of North Carolina (Trump by 3.7) and Arizona (Trump by 3.5), which is Trump by about 3.6 — again, about the same as the House (5.7 points to the right of the nation).